How many people do you know actually have a land line anymore? How many under 40? Under 30?
One of the things no one talks about when discussing the polling data we receive for this election is the fact that, generally speaking, pollsters only call land lines when conducting surveys… which means, if you own only a cell phone chances are you’re not getting a call.
Why? Because pollsters are prohibited from calling cell phones by automatic dialing system and most pollsters use an automatic dialing system because its cheap. Therefore, if a poll was to include cell phone only voters it would have to be conducted via hand-dialing those numbers, a process which increases both the time and money required to complete the poll.
Salon observes that the number of “wireless” adult Americans is about 30 percent right now. In the 2004 election 7.1 percent of all voters were cellphone only… however recent data suggests that this percentage could be twice as high in 2008!
When you consider the demographic of Americans who are cell phone only, it tilts overwhelming in favor of Obama, which means he may be doing even better than the 5 to 6 points which most polls show him leading McCain right now.
So, if for some reason this election gets closer than many are predicting, I’d say between the (sleeper) cell phone only crowd and the white supremacists, Barack should have a powerful ace up his sleeve which no one’s betting on going into November.*
The full Salon.com article is worth reading HERE.
Lark
shadow campaigner
